sci-fi author, beatmaker

Tag: Trump

What Will the Structural Collapse (or Rebirth) of the United States Look Like?

Let’s start the weekend with some gloom-and-doom, shall we?

First, Chris Hedges, a journalist who has been calling out the moral bankruptcy and pyramid-scheme economy of the United States for some time.

In this short film by Amanda Zackem, Hedges highlights the bread-and-circuses distractions of entertainment, consumerism, and digital media that distract U.S. citizens from the plutocratic consolidation of wealth and plundering of the state.

Next, let’s spend some time with Peter Turchin and his mathematical approach to “megahistory” in this excellent profile by Graeme Wood. Turchin, a Russian zoologist who turned his attention to the study of mathematical patterns in human history, famously predicted the unrest of 2020 back in 2010. Turchin believes he has uncovered iron laws of human societal evolution, cycles of unrest perpetuated by the “overproduction of elites.” In the United States, Turchin asserts that 1920, 1970, and 2020 are all points of major civil unrest on his 50-year historical cycle graph.

Peter Turchin hypothesizes that too many elites competing for too few elite positions leads to the creation of “counter-elites”: troublemakers who rise to power by allying with the non-elite classes. He gives Steve Bannon as an example of a counter-elite. Bannon was raised working-class, attended Harvard Business School, got rich via various investments and a small share of the Seinfeld television show, but only rose to power via his Breitbart race-baiting tactics.

Three Things Trump Can’t Do

I promise this blog won’t become a 100% Trump-rant, but there are big geopolitical events afoot. I’ll be chewing the Trump cud for a little longer.

This essay from science fiction author Charles Stross gave me some big-picture perspective. Reactionary populism is a global problem, and the Russia-as-puppeteer theory may have legs. The “U.S. won the cold war” narrative is looking laughable at this point. The Kremlin has a long memory, and plays a ruthless international chess game with decade-long turns.

Now we have an administration that is not only politically conservative (in an extreme way, with the intention to roll back women’s rights and civil rights) but also potentially incompetent, led by a president with a history of criminality and corruption. Trump’s corruption and impulsiveness worry me just as much as his ideology (which, like Bannon’s, is flexible and opportunistic). Reckless decision making, cynicism, cronyism, corruption, and a failure of leadership could lead to economic collapse and systemic breakdown. Could it be as bad as what we’re seeing now in Venezuela? I think our checks-and-balances will probably save us from that fate, but the same forces are at work.

Across the pond we have Brexit in the UK, and anti-immigration sentiments all across Europe. Global reactionary populism. Terrorism is also a massive problem. What’s happening to our planetary society? I think we’re seeing the convergence of at least six macrotrends:

WTF Just Happened?

Usually I try to write posts that might help people solve problems, or otherwise be useful. But today I’m just going to try to sort out my own thoughts re: what just happened with the U.S. elections. And some ranting. So be warned, and check back next week if you want to read something useful (like how I turned my obsolete 2011 Macbook into a screaming fast machine running the latest everything).

Why did Trump win?

He won because 59.7 million people voted for him. Not as many as Clinton’s 59.9 [edit Nov. 21, up to 63.7M vs. Trump 62M] million, but enough to win an electoral victory. Who voted for Trump? It’s tempting to come up with pithy descriptions of these subgroups. Red Pill bros. Muslim-haters. Women who are scared of being raped by Mexicans. Angry white men who want their privileges preserved. KKK members.

But the descriptions don’t matter. Almost 60 million Americans voted for Trump. They each had their own reasons, each one a little different. Common sentiments in this group include economic fear, distrust of government, resentment towards political correctness, and a view of white Christian patriarchy as an American norm. If Trump’s racism, misogyny, shady business deals, and unstable temperament bothered them at all, it didn’t bother them enough to change their minds.

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