J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

Category: Culture Rants/Shares Page 1 of 21

Four Types of Power, Revisited (a political framework)

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On May 3

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics

I’m still trying to understand why the United States has taken such a hard, apparently sudden turn towards authoritarianism.

It’s not a new concern for anyone who’s been paying attention. Back in 2011, during Obama’s first term, I wrote about the rise of fascism in the United States. The context was Occupy Wall Street, a major protest against extreme wealth inequality. At the time I hypothesized that a right-wing reactionary movement was much more likely than any kind of leftist revolution. I pointed to trends like increased secret surveillance of private citizens, war profiteering, the use of prison camps and torture, scapegoating immigrants, and ever-increasing wealth inequality.

And shit, I was right.

The same year, I wrote a blog post entitled Four Types of Power. The idea was simple: divide the use of power according to two axes, creating four quadrants:

  • coercive power (threat or use of violence or other harm, force, “power over”) vs. non-coercive power (creative/attractive/persuasive power, “power to”)
  • zero-sum contexts (closed systems) vs. non-zero-sum contexts (open systems)

The model describes four quadrants of power. In a societal/geopolitical context, the four quadrants could be described as:

  • Authoritative (coercive, closed systems)
  • Extractive (coercive, open systems)
  • Competitive (non-coercive, closed systems)
  • Innovative (non-coercive, open systems)

My thinking has evolved since 2011. When I first conceived of this model, I had strong negative value judgements about the authoritative and extractive power quadrants. The most egregious abuses of power (like slavery and environmental destruction) certainly exist within these quadrants. But I’ve come to accept that any functioning society needs some use of authoritative and extractive power in order to survive. Like any liberal person with a decent amount of empathy, I’ve tried to consider if and how a society could function without the threat of violence against its own citizens. In 2013 I imagined something like a “citizenship score” could be an alternative to tossing people in jail. I was slightly horrified when the Chinese government implemented the Social Credit System the following year, not as an alternative to incarceration, but as more of a Black Mirror-like dystopian citizen surveillance program. But not totally dissimilar to my own idea, which made me question my own judgment.

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Vandals (can be resisted)

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On March 22

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

Lately my mental cope regarding the current political situation has been to think of it as “the horribleness” and then do my best to briefly forget about it and go about my life. A few times a day Kia and I will yell horrible headlines from our respective home offices and agree on how horrible they are. Not very functional, admittedly. Definitely not resistance, which I aspire to.

I know there’s more I could be doing. And I’m gearing up to it. But the first step is trying to understand what happened (and is happening) to our country.

My current model of reality looks something like this: Trump and his ilk won not only because of their tried-and-true strategy of blaming economic problems on immigrants (along with a big dose of fear-mongering and race-baiting), not only because they probably rigged vote-counting machines in key counties, but also because Democrats failed to sufficiently emphasize economic issues, focused too much on identity politics, and basically ignored the crisis in Gaza. That, and many U.S. voters get the “ick” when they think of Democrats and progressives because of performative virtue signaling and cultural elitism.

So that covers what happened, more or less. Trump didn’t win because half the country is terribly racist, hates women, or likes the idea of a dictator/king president. While I still think Trump voters were deeply misled and deeply wrong, I can at least understand why many of them voted that way. I blame Russian and Facebook disinformation as much as I blame any individual Trump voter.

As for what is happening, that’s been harder to wrap my head around. There’s a plan, Project 2025, and they’re trying to roll it out as quickly as possible. But what’s the real goal, the end game? Save the US taxpayer money? Destroy the state apparatus and replace it with a corporate structure where the CEO/dictator/king has absolute power? “Take back” the national identity so that white Anglo Christian culture is completely dominant and unopposed? Destroy the welfare state (and probably the middle class along with it), once and for all? Become actual Nazis/fascists and put all their enemies in camps? Invade Canada? Invade Greenland? All of the above?

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Trolling is Limit Searching

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On January 23

In Culture Rants/Shares

Trolling, as Musk has strongly implied was his intent when making a Nazi salute at Trump’s inauguration, is limit searching, plain and simple.

It’s what someone does to find out how far they can go before there is significant pushback or real consequences.

It has nothing to do with humor. It’s only marginally funny, and even then only to insecure, cruel onlookers. It’s never funny to those being trolled.

Toddlers do it all the time–it’s part of growing up. How much can I get away with before Mommy and Daddy get really mad?

I can easily imagine Musk, who is both deeply insecure and insatiably power hungry (the two usually go together), thinking to himself: I’ll bet if I go out there and make a Nazi salute, nothing bad will happen to me. The press will excuse it, and I’ll totally trigger the libs.

And he’s right, more or less, though maybe we haven’t yet seen the full consequences.

Musk is probably racist, but I doubt he adheres strongly to any kind of Nazi ideology, or any ideology beyond gaining money, power, and status.

But that’s not the point. His Nazi salute was a test of what people will do if he makes a Nazi salute. He’s trolling us.

So what will we do?

I was already divested from TSLA, but I posted my Bluesky profile as my last Tweet. Small, but if enough people do it, X.com will continue to circle the drain and die. This is less of a consequence than Elon deserves, but it may serve as the limit he’s so desperately searching for.

Give this man some guardrails!

The Eternal Existential Threats to Democratic Societies

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On December 11

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

I’ve been thinking about how I’m going to handle my stress levels for the next four or more years, living under an anti-democratic government. I didn’t do so well from 2016 through 2020, suffering from several stress-related health issues. It wasn’t ALL because of our president during that time, but that was a big part of it.

First of all, I’m going to be stricter with my information diet. I’m going to follow the news less closely, with reduced frequency. I’ll probably still glance at headlines daily, but I’m not going to spend a lot of time reading about the intricacies of the latest horrible thing Trump and his cronies are doing. I know it’s going to be bad, and there’s not a whole lot I can do about it right now.

I’m also swearing off late-night comics who pillory Trump, and left-wing rage-bait YouTube. Making fun of Trump doesn’t get rid of him, and I’m already angry enough.

So what am I going to do?

I’m going to keep thinking, writing, and sharing my opinions as a still-free citizen. And I’m going to keep a long-term perspective, both for my own mental health, and as part of my self-assigned responsibility as a science fiction writer.

Threats to Democracy as Entropic Decay

Lately I’ve been thinking about threats to democracy as a process of entropic decay. A thriving democratic society requires systems to guard against internal and external threats. If sufficient energy isn’t invested into those systems, natural entropic forces will cause those systems to decay, devolve, and eventually die.

For example, a democratic society requires a reasonably educated and informed populace (so citizens can vote intelligently), a free press (to report the truth and call out corruption), a functional system of checks and balances (once again to prevent corruption and power-mongering), and many other systems (or institutions, if you prefer) to keep things running smoothy and fairly. Maintaining order in those systems requires energy (time, money, resources). There will always be bad actors who try to divert that energy into their own pockets or pet projects, arguing that we don’t really need those systems (because everything is fine). But eventually, if you divert enough resources from public education, public health, protecting journalists, etc.–then things will no longer be fine. And that’s what we’re experiencing in the United States.

In terms of personal copium, I find it helpful to think of Trump as a natural entropic force. He’s just another charismatic grifter–they’re a dime a dozen throughout history. Threats to democracy will always exist (thus eternal), and energy will always be required to push back against those threats (“eternal vigilance is the price of freedom”).

Types of Threats–Internal and External

So what are the eternal existential threats to democratic societies, exactly?

Internal Threats

  • extreme wealth inequality
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism
  • corruption
  • environmental/health
  • low birthrate

All of these threats overlap and mutually aggravate, and the result is always social mistrust and a fractured society. So which systems protect against each?

  • extreme wealth inequality (free healthcare and education, basic income/citizen stipends, progressive taxation, corporation taxation, inheritance tax, closing tax loopholes and offshorism)
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism (strong public education to reduce bigotry and ignorant voting, and, idk, maybe start a US royal family so we can all rally around a king or queen?)
  • corruption (support free press/protect journalists)
  • environmental/health (food safety, clean/air water regulations, preventative public health [vaccines, nutrition, easily accessible healthcare, etc.])
  • low birthrate (parental leave, reduce financial pressure on young people, idk?)

What about external threats? I used to more dovish, but decades of observing Putin has made me more of realist. And the glaciers are melting before our eyes…

External Threats

  • invasion
  • sabotage
  • currency/trade wars
  • natural disasters and climate change

And how do we protect against these?

  • invasion (strong, up-to-date military, high morale volunteer service, dissuasion via economic alliances)
  • sabotage (cyberwarfare defense, social media regulation to prevent foreign propaganda and divisive agents)
  • currency/trade wars (reduce deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing and resource acquisition)
  • natural disasters and climate change (reduce emissions, sequester carbon, relocate citizens in doomed zones)

Ten years ago I wouldn’t have considered invasion, but then Russia invaded Ukraine. And now Trump is talking about “annexing” Mexico and Canada. Is he joking? Probably? I hope?

So, are we fucked?

Will the United States survive the current round of entropic, anti-democratic bullshit? Ultimately I think it will, because of the many anti-fragile elements of our government. But I think we’ll see a much diminished nation. What’s likely?

  • US dollar will experience degradation as a reserve currency
  • Weakened alliances with EU and NATO, US no longer seen as a rock-solid reliable ally
  • Public health, life expectancy, and education levels will continue to decline as long as GOP is in power
  • Climate change will be ignored as long as GOP is in power

Things can always get worse, but they can also always get better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country swings both left and small-d democratic (which is different than liberal) in the coming decade. Maybe Ray Dalio is right and there’s something to Strauss-Howe generational theory, and we’ll see the beginning of a return to civic life, strong institutions, and a more-or-less united populace around 2034.

Did She Really Lose?

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On November 14

In Culture Rants/Shares

Trigger warning: election stress

Generally I shy away from conspiracy theories, but real, actual conspiracies do exist. While the United States is undoubtedly experiencing a rightward shift in sentiment, even to the point of the outright embrace of racism and fascism by many, I’m not quite ready to accept that MORE THAN HALF actually voted for Trump.

Am I in denial? Quite possibly. But maybe it’s a little early to start analyzing why Harris’s numbers were so much lower than most reputable polls predicted.

I’ve been spending some time on the houstonwade subreddit, and some recent posts have raised my eyebrows. Were there team-Trump election shenanigans?

For example:

Was the election stolen? Probably not. But I’m hoping for recounts, especially in MI and PA, to verify that the ballots add up with the tabulation system results. The next four years will be hard enough to stomach without the sneaking suspicion that the whole thing was rigged.

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