I don’t enjoy worrying or ruminating. Excessive rumination is linked to depression, a loss of hope, and a more negative interpretation of events and experiences. When I find myself obsessing on a negative possibility, I do what I can to break out of that thought pattern. Exercise or sports usually helps, as does any kind of physical activity that demands my full attention. Writing and journaling can help to crystallize or express my thoughts, and to gain perspective.

There are advantages to optimism. Optimists tend to live longer and have better health outcomes when they get sick. They may be more successful in their careers and have better financial health. I’m usually optimistic, but I have plenty of worries and anxieties as well. I also wonder how much I should try to be optimistic and not worry about various possible calamities, and in what circumstances it makes sense to consider worst case scenarios and other poor outcomes.

I usually try to imagine best case scenarios. Even though those best case scenarios are unlikely to materialize, imagining them help keep me oriented in the direction I want to be going.

But I think there is a place for imagining bad possibilities in detail.

To counterbalance excessive optimism

This is especially helpful with investing. When the stock market is going up, it feels like its going to go up forever (at least to us optimists). Before I make an investment decision I imagine how I might feel if the stock went to zero, or if I repeated any of my many investment mistakes.

To provide motivation for preparation and preventative action

In college I had a few public speaking meltdowns. I didn’t prepare adequately for a presentation, tried to wing it, and just froze up and made a fool out of myself. When I have to speak in front of a crowd or give any type of presentation, I imagine the embarrassment of choking, and use that discomfort for motivation to prepare and practice.

To prevent frivolous and unnecessary purchases

Derek Sivers has a great post about this.

To mitigate risk and succeed in business

Back in the early 2000’s I co-ran one of the most well-attended weekly electronic music events in San Francisco, a party that had a line out of the door every week. We succeeded due to the vision of my business partner, our reasonably good organization and planning skills, great employees, a wealth of musical/DJ talent, and maybe most importantly, a great location and perfect timing in terms of what people wanted to do around that time in San Francisco.

But eventually, after more than a decade of easy success, things started to wind down. We could see it coming. We ended the party before it got depressing and before it started losing money. Continuing on with an optimistic spirit, wishing and hoping for the party to get super-popular again, would have made for a bitter ending. But because we were able to imagine what that kind of end would look like, we cut our losses.

Evidence suggests that entrepreneurs capable of pessimistic thought are better able to mitigate risk and succeed in the long run. Imagining losing is an important part of winning.

Flipping the ratio

It’s natural to worry. It’s a built-in feature of the human mind. And in some specific ways, negative visualization (directed, strategic worrying) can be a useful behavior.

But most minds, including my own, are prone to excessive worrying and rumination. It’s a survival mechanism to works pretty well to keep us alive, so it’s a trait that persists over the generations.

But worrying doesn’t help me thrive. Once I have seen a negative possibility and taken whatever steps I can to avoid that possibility, continuing to worry about it just raises my anxiety.

Left to its own devices, I think my mind would worry 80% of the time and imagine positive scenarios 20% of the time. Ideally I’d like to flip that ratio, and have my mind occupied with positive outcomes and how I’m going to get there for the vast majority of the time, and consider negative possibilities just enough to see them coming and avoid them when possible.

Other Items/Hawking my Wares

If you haven’t yet picked my new novel The Guardian, please consider doing so. If you like plausible science fiction, Vikings, space habitats, human genetic divergence, and/or climate fiction, then I think you’ll enjoy it.

I have a new Momu track out with Mark Musselman “Money Can’t Buy Life” as part of the Loöq Records Masters Expression project. It’s our second attempt at reggae and is doing much better than our first attempt which completely bombed (despite having a talented vocalist).