Nothing in the universe is truly random; reality is governed by cause and effect (at least on a macro scale). But many aspects of life appear random because we don’t have infinite knowledge or perception. There are also domains that we understand but are unable to choose or influence (such as the genes we’re born with or the interests we’re drawn to), so they might as well be random.

Sometimes we refer to the random-appearing events that happen to people as luck. Everyone has good luck and bad luck. Bad luck might manifest as illness, relationships gone sour, unemployment, investment losses, or freak accidents. Good luck might manifest as marrying well, gambling winnings, a perfect job offer, an abundance of friends, or great genetics.

Looking at these lists, it’s obvious that at least some of these things are partially within our control. Good health habits can prevent or mitigate many illnesses. Good communication skills can save a marriage.

On the other hand, bad things do happen to good people making good decisions. People are born into bad situations (war-torn countries, abusive families, etc.). Natural disasters can occur out of the blue. A drunk driver might take you out on the freeway. Some things are just completely out of our control, like the DNA within our cells (at least until we enter the science fiction realm of genetic self-determination).

So how can we best navigate the realm of luck? How can we exploit that wiggle room between “clearly within our realm of influence” and “completely out of our control”?

Roll the Dice More Often

My basic strategy to expose myself to more good luck is to take more chances where the risk is low but the possible rewards are high. I apply this to everything: investing, meeting new people, creative projects, submitting my work for publication, attending social events, etc.

When evaluating risk, I consider physical safety, how much time and/or money are required to “buy in”, the possibility of emotional distress or trauma, the reliability and reputations of the other individuals and/or institutions involved, and so forth.

When evaluating rewards, I consider possible financial outcomes, what I might learn, the possibility of strengthening relationships or forging new ones, possible enjoyment of the experience, and many other factors.

The risks I avoid are “all-in” bets, regardless of the potential reward level. I don’t invest a large percentage of my wealth into any single investment. I don’t risk my reputation or integrity by treating people badly.

YOLO is only a good life philosophy when it’s easy to recover from the potential loss. If you lose $1000 on what looked like a good investment, get your feelings hurt when a potential romantic partner turns you down, or write some short stories that get rejected by every publisher, you’ll be fine after licking your wounds. Those are the risks worth taking, the ones where you can dust yourself off and try again.

A few general methods of “rolling the dice more” that have worked well for me:

  • Ask politely for what I want
  • If a situation isn’t working for me, be willing to walk away (even if I risk losing money, resources, etc.)
  • Help others with no expectation of anything in return, generally be friendly and helpful as long as the personal cost/risk is low (it isn’t always)
  • Put myself out there, submit my work, get feedback from other people/the universe/reality
  • Attend events, go out more, meet more people (especially those who are doing what I want to be doing)

Rewards and Risks Are Different for Everyone

Risks and rewards aren’t universal; we all value and fear different things at different times in our lives. Money is much more important when you don’t have financial security. Friendship is more important when you’re lonely. A ninety-year-old might take a health risk more seriously (because they are more vulnerable) or less seriously (because they don’t have as long to live).

It’s important to audit your values to make sure you are pursuing the right rewards — things that truly matter to you — and not chasing yesterday’s dream. There is such a thing as enough money, for example. I don’t regret taking time to evaluate in great detail what financial security and financial freedom mean to me (so that I know what the “enough” numbers are).

Notes on Randomness

It’s easy to get discouraged while navigating spaces governed in whole or in part by randomness. A few things to keep in mind:

  • Random doesn’t look random. Considering how many things happen in any given day, it’s probable that the improbable will occur. It’s tempting to assign meaning to these improbabilities, but most of the time it’s just coincidence. When you are more active (rolling the dice more), the number of coincidences will increase. Our brains will look for and find patterns in the noise, but most of the times these patterns are phantoms and will fail as predictive models.
  • A string of bad luck doesn’t mean you’re due for good luck.
  • Random events don’t care about your emotions or desires.
  • A long string of failures probably means that whatever you are trying to do, the odds aren’t great. See below for how to improve the odds.

Act Smarter (Move Out of the Random Realm)

Ultimately, getting luckier has its limits. Those who have the most success only appear lucky to others.

The best approach to luck is to remove luck from the equation as much as possible. To do this, we need to better understand cause and effect. And then convert that understanding into action, and eventually into behavioral systems and habits.

The risk in this approach is hubris. It’s easy to know just enough to be dangerous. Thinking we’ve taken randomness out of the equation, we might take big risks without even knowing we’re taking them.

But in the long run it pays to know what we’re doing. Pay attention to what works and what doesn’t work in our own lives. Learn from the mistakes of other and avoid them. Pay attention to the success of others as well, but be aware of confirmation bias (those who succeed are more likely to talk about their “winning strategy” then others who failed using the exact same methods).

Once we have a better understanding of the underlying patterns and dynamics, try to implement what we’ve learned. Since our knowledge won’t be perfect, expect setbacks and hiccups in the implementation process.

In my own life there are areas where I succeed consistently. Other areas continue to confound me, and seem largely governed by randomness (how to write a bestselling novel, for example).

Some examples where I have reduced randomness and increased agency:

  • Investing, via dollar cost averaging in sectors that actually move independently (after many, many investing mistakes).
  • Personal relationships, via consistently responding to emotional/attentional bids.
  • Writing productivity, via a weekday morning writing habit.

I won’t elaborate — plenty has been written about each of these areas. These are just example of areas of my life that used to feel more random (in terms of success) and now feel more within my control (or at least influence). Of course I can still have a string of bad luck in any of these areas, but my perception is that luck is less of a factor now that I have good systems and habits in place.

What areas of your life once felt random but are now more within your control? How did you make that transition?

And how do I write a bestselling novel?