Lately I’ve been playing chess. I’m not very good. After a hundred-or-so games in recent weeks, I can beat the lichess.org computer at level 4 only about 20% of the time (no time limit). For the first few weeks I was getting back into chess, I played human beings from around the world in timed games. But I found that playing computer opponents, without a time limit, is less stressful and helps me learn more quickly.

My main weakness in chess is getting too excited about my plan, and moving my pieces before carefully evaluating the board. One question I’ve been asking myself lately after my opponent’s move is what has changed?

I find this question more useful than trying to ask myself what my opponent’s intentions are. A single move in chess often does multiple things, opening up multiple avenues of attack but also weakening defenses. My opponent may not even realize all the repercussions of their move. And if I don’t look carefully, I certainly won’t.

I’ve been considering this same question in different contexts, including my personal life, the trajectory of the United States, and global climate and ecosystems. Developments in the United States are most relevant to strategic, competitive thinking; our nation and way of life has actual enemies trying to bring us down.

The United States: What Has Changed?

  • We are no longer “the world’s only superpower.” Donald Trump’s administration has deteriorated our nation’s image and influence.
  • We are no longer really even a “first world country.” The United States ranks mid-list in measures of education, healthcare, transportation, safety, happiness, life expectancy, and all other measures of citizen well-being.
  • The zeitgeist has changed significantly, such that open expressions of racism, misogyny, and other forms of hatred are no longer generally tolerated. This has caused an enormous backlash from those who resent this change.
  • The right wing, fearing a loss of power due to both cultural and demographic changes, is systemically attacking voting rights in order to retain power.
  • Foreign agents (primarily Russian) have successfully infiltrated US media (especially social media) on a mass scale, deploying hugely successful misinformation and divisiveness campaigns. They have succeeded in brainwashing and alienating a huge portion of the population (including, but not limited to, many Trump supporters), convincing millions of people that they are persecuted, that the recent US election was “stolen,” that all vaccines are dangerous, that higher education indoctrinates students to be communists, and so forth. This “long game” strategy has been in the works since before the collapse of the USSR (albeit without the details of social media implementation), but has recently borne enormous fruit. As conspiracy theories go, the KGB’s use of ideological subversion is backed by significant evidence.
  • Climate change is punishing the United States, and our cities and agricultural areas are woefully unprepared. Wild fires, flooding, hurricanes, and drought threaten food security, water availability, infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health.
  • Despite a relatively strong economy, wealth inequality and tax evasion by the rich (which go hand-in-hand) are limiting economic opportunities for the non-rich, forcing longer working hours, less leisure time, fewer single-earner families, more disincentives to have and raise children, and decreased standards of living for the youngest adult generations.
  • Tuition costs and student debt are completely out of control, resulting in reduced access to higher education and great debt burdens for younger generations.
  • Science and scientific institutions are producing potentially world-changing breakthroughs in the fields of energy production and storage, space flight, materials, and medicine.
  • Covid-19 has killed 600k+ Americans within the last 20 months, has afflicted a much larger number with long-term symptoms and disabilities, and has resulted in billions of dollars of economic damage, disrupted education for nearly every student, and massive psychological trauma and stress.
  • The pandemic has shifted the economy towards more remote work, less commuting, generally higher savings rates, and less economic security for the working class.

Of these relatively recent changes, only three are good: mainstream culture has slightly shifted toward less bigotry, scientific research continues to produce valuable results, and some people are working from home and thus driving less.

The other changes are bad, but can be boiled down to four distinct elements or root causes: the pandemic, climate change (which is obviously global, but doesn’t affect all nations equally), successful efforts by Russia to subvert and destabilize US culture and politics (culminating in Trumpism and even Q-Anon), and successful efforts of the plutocracy to further consolidate wealth and power at the expense of public wealth and health.

That said, I don’t feel completely pessimistic about the future of the US. My main cause for cautious optimism is based on what hasn’t changed: our national character. When we’re not arguing with each other on the internet, the majority of US citizens are friendly and work hard. We like to get things done, we’re amenable to positive change and trying things differently, and most of us have some experience with multiculturalism and tolerance (we’re almost all immigrants or mixed, one way or another). And our political system, as flawed as it is, may in fact be antifragile (getting stronger when stressed).

I also feel optimistic because the pandemic won’t last forever, and the fight against the plutocracy appears to be gaining momentum. As for Russia’s success in fostering US extremism, hijacking the GOP, spreading antiscientific nonsense, and generally undermining the foundations of liberal democracy and US solidarity, it could go either way. I may be writing to you from the nation of California in ten years, as I sip desalinated Pacific Ocean water and admire my desert landscape surroundings.

Given What Has Changed in the US, What Strategies Make Sense?

So given these changes, what’s are my strategies as a US citizen? How can I improve the health and success of my family, community, and nation?

  • Try to stay healthy and keep my family and friends healthy, physically and mentally.
  • Climate-proof my house. So far we have double-pane windows, water security [hot tub + Berkey filter], and air filters in every room for when the California wildfire smoke gets bad. Next on the list is solar power with a good battery system, for energy security and to reduce our carbon footprint. We’re not in a flood zone and we don’t live near a forest.
  • Correct whatever misinformation I hear within my social circles (without attacking the person — they are a victim of a well-funded, highly trained foreign intelligence agency with decades of experience).
  • Politically support reducing tax loopholes and tax evasion among the ultrawealthy, and do whatever I can to undermine the plutocracy and redirect wealth toward public investment (education, transportation, healthcare, infrastructure, libraries, etc.).
  • Continue to devote most of my time and effort into my personal chosen purpose in life, which is to write science fiction that explores possible scenarios for humankind and Earth, to combine realistic extrapolation of current trends with vigorous imagining of brighter possibilities and alternatives, in a page-turning, can’t-put-this-book down manner. You can evaluate my efforts yourself by checking out my Reclaimed Earth series on Flame Tree Press (Book 3 comes out next month).

With so many terrible things happening in the world, it’s tempting to surrender to nihilism and escapism. But personally I feel better when I take the time to zoom out and see the big picture. On that basis, I can make decisions that nudges our collective existence toward a brighter future.

What has changed in your own life or community? How have you changed your own plans or approach in response?